RENTON, Wash. -- The Seattle Seahawks still have a long way to go, but they are firmly in the playoff hunt, sandwiched between the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers for ninth in the NFC. All three teams are looking up at the Arizona Cardinals, who come to Seattle on Sunday for the first of two meetings over the next three weeks.
Between Seattle's two games against Arizona is a Week 13 trip across the country to face the New York Jets, whose chaotic 2024 season took another turn this week with the firing of general manager Joe Douglas.
The Seahawks' 20-17 victory over the 49ers in Week 11 got them back to .500 and put them in control of their fate with seven games remaining. These next three games against the current division leader and a dysfunctional Jets team will go a long way toward determining whether Seattle hops into the driver's seat as the fourth quarter of the season begins.
"We've earned the opportunity to be fighting for the lead in the division going into the home stretch," coach Mike Macdonald said. "That's the way we're treating it. It's very much like a playoff mindset for us at this point. Can't afford to drop games. You want to have the right to play these really important games in December and January, you've got to be able to execute and put yourself in that situation."
Seattle has 11 percent odds to make the playoffs and an 8 percent chance of winning the NFC West, according to The Athletic's projection model. A lot is riding on Sunday's result. With a win, those odds would increase to 21 and 16 percent, respectively. A loss would drop the odds to 4 and 2 percent.
Coming out of this three-game stretch with the division lead will largely come down to these three things.
Earlier this week, Macdonald was asked to identify one area where he'd like to see his team make a big jump. His response: "Let's take the ball away more."
Seattle ranks 26th in turnover margin at minus-6, tied with the 2-8 Giants and the 3-8 Patriots (all stats provided by TruMedia unless stated otherwise). The Seahawks are 28th in turnover EPA, which measures the impact of their turnovers and takeaways. Seattle's only win with a negative turnover differential came in Week 3 against the Tua Tagovailoa-less Dolphins (minus-2). The Seahawks lost the turnover battle in four of their five losses (against the Giants, both teams coughed it up once).
Quarterback Geno Smith is responsible for 11 of Seattle's 16 turnovers, all via interceptions. He's tied with Kansas City's Patrick Mahomes and Green Bay's Jordan Love for the league lead. Smith has an interception rate of 2.9 percent, which is tied for 11th with Indianapolis' Joe Flacco. Last week, Smith said he trusts his process regarding his interceptions and felt that his decision-making was mostly sound on what was then 10 turnovers. Offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb echoed that sentiment and said Smith's decision-making was not a problem.
On Sunday, Smith threw his worst interception of the year, forcing the ball to Jaxon Smith-Njigba in a scramble situation instead of throwing it away on third-and-long.
Based on the comments by Smith and Grubb ahead of the 49ers game, they'll probably consider the interception Sunday as a rare poor decision by the quarterback, but that is the sort of error the team can't afford over the next few weeks.
Those types of turnovers are even more costly when the defense isn't taking the ball away from the opponent. The Seahawks defense ranks 22nd in turnovers forced per drive. Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray is having a career year and has been one of the best QBs in the league at avoiding negative plays. He has the fourth-lowest "splint" percentage (sacks plus interceptions per dropback) and has thrown 0nly three interceptions.
The Seahawks have been an average team in terms of making plays on the ball, and they have a below-average sack rate despite ranking sixth in pressure rate, which is one of the primary ways that teams force quarterbacks into mistakes. Below-average turnover production probably won't cut it the rest of the season (especially if Smith continues to commit turnovers, good process or not). Macdonald's Baltimore defense led the league in sacks and turnovers last season, and that's the type of dominance Seattle needs to reach over the next few weeks.
The Seahawks rank 30th in designed rush rate and 29th in EPA per play on those carries. So not only do they rarely run the ball, but they're also not very good at it when they do. The Cardinals and Jets have below-average run defenses by yards per game and success rate, so this is the perfect time for Seattle to find its groove.
Short-yardage situations and explosive runs (12 or more yards) are the two areas to watch over the next few weeks. Seattle has only 18 explosive runs, and Smith has seven of them. Ken Walker III hasn't had one since his 20-yard touchdown run against the Falcons in Week 7.
The blame can be spread across every position group. The offensive line needs to be better at climbing to the second level, the tight ends and receivers need to be more consistent at digging out nickels and safeties, and Walker must have better vision. Walker can improvise and reverse field with the best of them, but Seattle's run game would benefit from the third-year running back hitting the plays as designed more often. The lack of efficiency and explosiveness puts too much of a burden on the passing game (and kicker Jason Myers) to be dominant every week.
The Seahawks have been among the worst rushing teams with 3 or fewer yards to gain. However, they took some steps forward against the 49ers. They gave the ball to their running backs three times in short-yardage situations on third or fourth down and converted twice (Walker also scored on second-and-goal from the 1 in the third quarter). Seattle used 21 personnel (two backs, one tight end, two wide receivers) on all three plays, putting Walker and Zach Charbonnet on the field together.
On third-and-1 in the second quarter, Charbonnet lined up at fullback in an I-formation and went up the middle for 2 yards. On fourth-and-1 in the fourth quarter, the Seahawks used a split-back formation, and Walker followed pulling guard Laken Tomlinson around the edge for 4 yards. But later during that same drive, they went back to the fullback dive on fourth-and-1, and Charbonnet was stuffed for no gain. (Of note: Smith was under center on all of those plays, including Walker's touchdown.)
Macdonald was pleased with the progress given how much his team struggled in the losses to Buffalo and Los Angeles, but he also lamented Charbonnet's failed fourth down. Macdonald knows they must convert at a much higher clip. As these last two division games have illustrated, winning and losing can come down to whether his team can pick up 1 yard.
"Trying to find an identity is letting us take a step," Macdonald said. "We want to be 100 percent, really decisive, really confident in those calls, which I felt like we were going into this game. We've gotta keep trending in that situation, though. Keep finding some new wrinkles, understanding how we're going to build certain formations and all the personnel groups that we want in those situations. But we're getting closer."
Macdonald was hired in part because of his reputation for elevating the play of non-star-level players, particularly on defense. He's been as advertised to a degree, as guys like Coby Bryant, Josh Jobe and Derick Hall are playing their best football while rookies such as Byron Murphy II and Tyrice Knight have hit the ground running.
Claiming first place in the division will likely require Seattle's most valued players -- meaning those who were drafted in the first round or signed to lucrative contracts -- to perform at a level commensurate with the team's investment.
Sunday's game offered an example of the difference that can make. Smith-Njigba, a 2023 first-round pick, had 10 catches for 110 yards. DK Metcalf, whose average annual salary is $24 million, had 70 yards on seven catches. Smith, Smith-Njigba and Metcalf accounted for all but 5 yards on the game-winning drive. Left tackle Charles Cross, a 2022 first-round pick, struggled a bit on Sunday, but he was an exception.
Devon Witherspoon, the fifth pick in the 2023 draft, had three passes defensed, one of which led to the Seahawks' only takeaway when he tipped the ball to Johnathan Hankins for an interception. The defensive line didn't fill up the box score, but $64 million man Leonard Williams was one of the reasons -- along with Murphy -- that Seattle held San Francisco's run game in check.
Seattle has invested in certain players because the team views them as premiere talents (Dre'Mont Jones falls in this category as well). Most of those players have been good this season. But the Seahawks need them to be at their best during this stretch in which, as Macdonald said, there's not much margin for error.