We would like to say that we stopped the bleeding last week, but who are we kidding? We have less blood circulating than one of those zombies sauntering about in all the endless "Walking Dead" spinoffs.
Speaking of walking ankle-biters, Doug Pederson and Mike McCarthy remain the respective coaches of the Jacksonville Jaguars and Dallas Cowboys while Joe Douglas was fired as the general manager of the New York Jets ... because they already fired the coach. Those three teams were obvious go-against teams last week, but we opted to jump on a high wire with the Cleveland Browns, San Francisco 49ers and Atlanta Falcons as three of our best bets.
Coaching in the NFL is apparently really hard, and half of the teams are wondering if their guy is really "the guy." There is no question that Jim Harbaugh is the guy, as he has already led the Los Angeles Chargers to more wins (seven) than they had last season (five). His defense is tough in the trenches and after improving the offensive line, he leaned on the running game early before taking off the training wheels and letting Justin Herbert be Justin Herbert despite a mediocre receiving corps.
But, his biggest impact was seen in last week's win over the Cincinnati Bengals. He had SoFi Stadium full of Chargers fans and it was rocking, which I didn't know was possible. This week, the Chargers host the Baltimore Ravens on Monday night, and Jim will try to play the role of John Harbaugh's annoying little brother on national television. It's not one of my best bets, though, because I am a brain-dead zombie.
There is some hidden value here but it requires you to cover your eyes and plug your nose. The Steelers are coming off a huge win over the Ravens and might be flat, and their offense ranks last in the NFL in goal-to-go efficiency at 52.9 percent -- they needed six field goals (against a bad defense) and two Ravens missed field goals to win last week. The Steelers defense held the top-ranked Ravens offense to single-game lows in EPA per play (-0.17) and EPA per dropback (-0.21), but they own Lamar Jackson. The Browns, on the other hand, lost one of our "best bet" games, 35-14, to the Saints, but that game was tied at 14 in the fourth quarter. Their defense will get pressure on Russell Wilson and ranks first in havoc rate (percentage of plays with a tackle for a loss, forced fumble, interception, pass breakup or sack) at 22.4 percent, and the Browns beat the Steelers last season here, 13-10. Take the points.
Sam Darnold looked like early-season Sam Darnold again, and the reason is the five guys he has up front. He has attempted 70.3 percent of his pass attempts after more than 2.5 seconds, the highest rate in the NFL. He can also lean on one of the league's best defenses, which took its foot off the gas last week. They only blitzed 28 percent of the time (down from 36 percent) against Will Levis because ... it's Will Levis. He pressures himself. While the Vikings had five sacks, their streak of five straight games with multiple takeaways ended. They will harass Caleb Williams and while the Bears (four touchdowns in the last four games) found some success running the ball last week, the Vikings defense yields a 0.21 EPA per rush rate -- tops in the NFL over the last four years through 11 weeks.
The Titans have only covered the spread once this season, back in Week 4, yet they aren't one of the truly awful teams. They have only been blown out twice, by arguably the two best teams in the league (Buffalo and Detroit), and were hanging tough against the Vikings last week until a questionable fourth-down penalty call. And that's with a banged-up secondary. This should be another good spot to hang around as the Texans are coming off a short week and winning bragging rights in the state of Texas. And even though he got Nico Collins back, C.J. Stroud is still missing too many throws. Joe Mixon will not be able to run wild like he did against the Cowboys -- the Titans have some mean SOBs up front. The Titans, meanwhile, should be able to run against the Texans. That's key because Levis has been awful this season. But with Daniel Jones benched, I need a new pet project. There's no reason Levis can't just be below average and cover some spreads the rest of the way.
The pick: Titans
Last week, the Lions became the first team since the 2007 Patriots to score a touchdown on each of its first seven drives of a game. They have won eight in a row and even if they have a letdown here, they won't need the 37 points they are averaging over that span to cover this number. Their defense ranks first in opposing passer rating (73.6) and third-down conversion rate (30.4 percent), and it's hard to see Colts QB Anthony Richardson playing as well again as he did last week against the ghoulish Jets. He set career highs in EPA per dropback (0.24), total QB EPA (10.3) and passer rating (106.5) and produced his highest completion percentage (66.7 percent) of his career in games where he dropped back at least 20 times. The Colts are pretty happy with themselves and became the fifth team in the Super Bowl era to have their first 11 games decided by 10 or fewer points, but that run comes to an end because, among other things, they can't stop the run.
The pick: Lions
Both teams have improved since that 15-10 Miami win last month. The Dolphins got Tua Tagovailoa and some defensive players back, while the Patriots made the switch at quarterback to Drake Maye and welcomed defensive tackle Christian Barmore back last week. The Dolphins have won two in a row and Tagovailoa leads the league in EPA per dropback over the last four weeks at 0.37. That still doesn't mean I want to lay 7.5 points. The Dolphins have a game coming up against the Packers on Thanksgiving, and the attention has to be a little divided considering they already beat the Patriots without Tagovailoa. Maye has a live arm, plus he has a run of 15 yards or longer in each of his six starts -- he will make something happen late to lose by less than 7.5.
The pick: Patriots
I get the benching of Daniel Jones, even though the team's best defensive player didn't. At some point, it was that or Brian Daboll blinding himself after another late or inaccurate throw. But what happened to Drew Lock? Did they really not go to him to save some money? I mean, the only three quarterbacks worse than Tommy DeVito last year in EPA were Zach Wilson, Trevor Siemian, and Bailey Zappe. Good luck against all of Todd Bowles' blitzes. The Buccaneers are coming off a bye week and Baker Mayfield is getting Mike Evans back. The Giants defense ranks 31st in opposing passer rating at 104.7 despite pass rusher Brian Burns starting to come on (14.5 percent pressure rate with six sacks). The Buccaneers lost four close games to good teams before their bye, and are set up for a strong finish as they only play one team with better than a 4-7 record the rest of the way.
The pick: Buccaneers
The Cowboys got blown out by the Texans and I actually didn't think Cooper Rush was terrible. That is, until they lost a couple more offensive linemen. That leans right into a Commanders defense that is strong against the pass but not the run. That the Cowboys haven't even given Trey Lance a look speaks volumes. He must be terrible in practice. Washington QB Jayden Daniels, meanwhile, was a lock for the Offensive Rookie of the Year award before injuring his ribs and going against some good defenses. And now Bo Nix and Brock Bowers are sniffing around. Luckily for Daniels, he had a few extra days off after the Thursday game, and the Cowboys star players basically admitted that teams are relishing stepping on their throats. I am surprised this point spread hasn't been bet up more.
The pick: Commanders
It seems like just yesterday that I was in the Broncos press box at halftime of the Oct. 6 game against the Raiders, talking with a couple of national writers about how bad Bo Nix's arm looked. Man, has he gotten better every game and punished me here. Last week, Nix became the first rookie in NFL history to have a game with a completion percentage of 80 percent, four or more passing touchdowns and 300 or more pass yards. The Broncos are 8-3 against the spread and now get to see a Raiders defense again that is worse than it was a month ago. Injuries have exposed a lack of depth, and even Maxx Crosby has been a non-factor -- he has no sacks and one tackle for loss in the last three games. The Broncos defense, on the other hand, will get pressure on Gardner Minshew II, who leads the league with 13 turnovers. Linebacker Nik Bonitto has led the NFL in the past three weeks in pressure percentage at 23.2 percent. Make it seven straight losses for the Raiders, all by at least five points.
The pick: Broncos
We loved the 49ers last week before we knew George Kittle was out. And then Nick Bosa had to leave the game in the third quarter, at which point the Seahawks got their only two touchdowns and won the game. We want to love them again here because their roster is too good to keep losing. Right? Plus, the Packers didn't play that well against the Bears last week. While Jordan Love was 6-for-6 for 182 yards and a touchdown on passes that traveled 10 or more yards in the air, he also became the first quarterback since Case Keenum in 2018 to throw an interception in each of his first eight games. We're not going to know Bosa's status until later in the week, but I am going to lean towards the Packers regardless. The 49ers are still having trouble in the red zone even with Christian McCaffrey back, and the Packers avenge last year's playoff loss by building off Josh Jacobs' 58 receiving yards last week.
The pick: Packers
Are the Cardinals good? They won four straight before their bye week, and here they are small road favorites. Are the Seahawks any good? They had lost five out of six before beating the 49ers last week and are 5-5, a game behind the first-place Cardinals. I am not going to lie to you. I have no idea about either question. The Seahawks have a worse run defense than the Cardinals, so James Conner should put his team on his back again. Marvin Harrison Jr. seems to finally have earned Kyler Murray's trust -- the rookie leads the NFL with three touchdowns on crossing patterns. One more stat to convince you (and me): Seahawks offensive linemen Stone Forsythe (35) and Charles Cross (30) rank first and sixth, respectively, in pressures allowed.
The pick: Cardinals
The Rams would be riding a five-game losing streak if not for a clunker two weeks ago against the Dolphins. And the biggest reason is their defense. Last week, the Rams pressured Drake Maye on 47.8 percent of his dropbacks, with 11 defenders generating at least one pressure. Jared Verse had a team-leading five pressures, with four of the pressures coming in less than 2.5 seconds. The Rams don't do well against good tight ends, so Dallas Goedert could have a big day for the Eagles. The Eagles defense has also gotten better since the start of the season and it -- and their young corners especially -- is a big reason for the six-game winning streak. They will be tested as the Rams' Puka Nacua (3.66 yards) and Cooper Kupp (3.47) rank seventh and eighth, respectively, in separation (minimum 30 touches) for receivers to the closest defender. I will take the Rams because I can't just quit going against BOTH Bo Nix and Nick Sirianni cold turkey.
The pick: Rams
The Ravens defense (285 yards per game against) has been bad against the pass all season and now faces one of the hottest quarterbacks in the league in Herbert. He has thrown for 1,022 yards, tossed seven touchdowns and had zero interceptions during the four-game winning streak. Harbaugh gave him some high praise, while he also has the Chargers defense leading the league giving up just 14.5 points per game. Khalil Mack rested up last week so he could help chase down Lamar Jackson. The Chargers held Jackson to 39 yards rushing in a 20-10 loss last season and have a better run defense this year, so Derrick Henry may also have a hard time busting out. Plus, Justin Tucker stinks all of a sudden. Los Angeles is the NFL capital of the world after Sunday and Monday night.
The pick: Chargers
Best bets: All of our top picks reside in the NFC, because how confident can you really be in the Browns, Titans or Broncos? We have three big road favorites, with the Vikings, Buccaneers and Lions smacking the Bears, Giants and Colts, respectively. Going against the Cowboys is too good to pass up, even at a higher spread, so give us the Commanders. And finally, the Rams are a lovable little home underdog to the Eagles.
Upset special (spread of at least 3 points): Russell Wilson will not win every game he plays in for the rest of his life. So give us the Browns (plus-3.5, plus=165 on the money line) to beat the Steelers.
-- TruMedia research courtesy of The Athletic's Larry Holder.