The NFL Most Valuable Player is a quarterback award. It is virtually impossible for a non-QB to be more valuable than the most valuable quarterback. The standard MVP conversation fails to encapsulate incredible performances by non-quarterbacks or tangle with questions regarding each position's value. That's why I like to make a ballot that goes beyond five players. Far beyond.
For the third consecutive season, I've created my (hypothetical) 100-player MVP ballot. You can view last year's here.
Before we dive in, here's how I define value and create this list.
I cannot stress enough how close this was at the top. At different moments, I had Allen, Jackson and Joe Burrow occupying the top spot.
Allen led the league in QBR in slightly fewer plays than Jackson -- thanks to him effectively sitting out Week 18. He displayed exceptional ability to avoid big mistakes, too. Allen threw an interception on 1.1% of dropbacks (fourth-best), had a 1.2% turnover rate (second-best) and was sacked on 2.6% of dropbacks (best). He was taken down on only 8.8% of pressures -- the same rate Eagles QB Jalen Hurts had on all dropbacks.
Allen also finished third in total team EPA on scrambles or designed carries (49). Thirty percent of the Bills' third- and fourth-down conversions came via quarterback runs, only trailing the Eagles from Weeks 1-17. Even when removing runs and scrambles, Allen ranked third in QBR (71) and second in EPA per play despite a low play-action rate (21%, 28th), a low designed rollout rate and an average motion at the snap rate.
So what separates Allen from Jackson? Very little. But I believe Jackson had more support. As much as I like Bills receiver Khalil Shakir, he's not as good as the Ravens' Zay Flowers. ESPN's open score ranks Flowers (82), Rashod Bateman (83) and tight end Mark Andrews (80) all higher than Shakir (51).
Jackson also had more running back support. The Ravens ranked second in EPA per designed running back run while the Bills ranked seventh. Even though Jackson probably helped Derrick Henry (more than the other way around), the star back's presence gave him a boost.
Baltimore's 0.21 EPA per play and 0.32 EPA per dropback led the league, which wouldn't have been possible without Jackson. If we assign the entire team's EPA to the quarterback on all of his dropbacks or designed carries, Jackson led the league with 181 to Allen's 165 (with Allen's Week 18 caveat).
Jackson's value primarily came from passing plays where he did not scramble. He led the NFL in yards per attempt (8.8) and maintained a 0.7% interception rate that ranked second-best among QBR-qualified quarterbacks. He was a bit less efficient on scramble plays. While his 8.6% scramble rate was third-highest, he managed only the ninth-most total EPA on scrambles and ranked eighth in total EPA on designed runs.
Still, the threat of Jackson's legs clearly had an effect. It's no coincidence that Henry averaged a career-high 5.9 yards per carry after eclipsing 5.0 yards per carry in only two of his previous eight seasons. No quarterback faced eight-man boxes on dropbacks more often than Jackson (11%) and his 67% rate versus light boxes was third-lowest. At first, these numbers look like knocks against Jackson, but his running threat is a big reason why he receives these looks.
I seriously considered Burrow for No. 1. His credentials are clear. He had a low interception rate (1.2%), ranked second in completion percentage over expectation (plus-5%) and had the lowest off-target rate (11%) among QBR-qualifying quarterbacks, per NFL Next Gen Stats. His QBR was slightly behind Allen and Jackson, though he registered 100 more plays than both of them.
QBR does a good job of accounting for context, but it doesn't incorporate everything. It's important to stress just how much of the Bengals' offense was on Burrow's shoulders.
Cincinnati had the highest pass rate over expectation (plus-6%) in the NFL. The Bengals' running game (24th in EPA per running back carry) did not support Burrow as much as the Bills' and Ravens' supported Allen and Jackson, respectively. Burrow is also not as much of a running threat, meaning 78% of Burrow's dropbacks came against light boxes (10th-most among QBR-qualified quarterbacks), as opposed to Allen's 70% and Jackson's 67%. Only 44% of Burrow's yards came via yards after the catch -- typically a measure of receivers and/or scheme -- while Jackson was at 50% and Allen 54%.
The Bengals also ranked dead last in pass block win rate this season, which strengthens Burrow's claim for the top spot. On the flip side, Burrow had the support of the NFL's leading receiver in Ja'Marr Chase, plus Tee Higgins. Also, I don't hold Cincinnati not making the playoffs against Burrow, as football is a team game.
Daniels' rookie season was a revelation, as he immediately elevated Washington into one of the NFL's most efficient offenses. The Commanders ranked fourth in offensive EPA per play and Daniels ranked fourth in QBR (70.5). His scrambles were particularly special. He scrambled at the highest rate among qualifiers (12%), generating the most scramble EPA (41) and ranking fourth in EPA on designed carries (18).
Daniels ran hot on third and fourth down especially, with a combined 93.5 QBR. That statistic is something to keep an eye on going forward since those types of high-leverage plays can affect QBR in a disproportionate way. Regardless, Daniels' clutch play led to points and a postseason berth.
There's a simple argument that Mahomes should have been lower on this list. He ranked eighth in QBR despite having Andy Reid calling plays. But I'm sympathetic to Mahomes' cause. For starters, Mahomes had more volume than the three quarterbacks ahead of him who have not yet appeared on this list (Jordan Love, Jared Goff and Brock Purdy). He also dealt with personnel issues around him.
While the interior of the Chiefs' offensive line remained incredibly strong, the team had to move through several left tackles. Kansas City's group of playmakers was also lacking for much of the season after Rashee Rice's season-ending injury, and it became apparent tight end Travis Kelce had slowed a fair bit. This was mitigated toward the end of the season with the addition of veteran receiver DeAndre Hopkins and return of Hollywood Brown, but Mahomes was held back for a big chunk of 2024. Yet he was still relatively efficient, even if it wasn't to his early-career standards.
There was preseason concern the Chargers might be so run heavy that they'd hurt themselves by taking the ball out of Herbert's hands. While that looked true in the beginning of the season, the Chargers had a run-pass ratio flip during their Week 5 bye. From Week 6 on, the Chargers passed the third-most of all teams relative to situational expectations, per NFL Next Gen Stats.
Herbert delivered with the increased volume. Though he ranked 11th in QBR, he was sixth in points above average -- a translation of QBR into a volume metric, albeit without some of QBR's adjustments. He did that despite entering the season with what seemed to be a very weak receiver group. It turned out to be better than expected because of the emergence of rookie Ladd McConkey, but Herbert's playmakers were below average. He did benefit from having good tackles (Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater) and a high rate of play-action.
If we looked only at team EPA on every dropback and designed carry (and targets since Goff caught a touchdown pass this season), Goff ranked third (159) behind Jackson and Allen. There's an argument that EPA sells Goff short, as the Lions had the fourth-lowest designed pass rate in the league (54%) due to regularly playing from ahead (they ranked 15th in pass rate over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats). And Goff was accurate, with a plus-4% completion percentage over expectation (per NFL Next Gen Stats) en route to his second-ranked 8.6 yards per pass attempt.
On the other hand, Goff had almost every imaginable advantage. He played behind a well-regarded offensive line, was supported by an efficient rushing game (0.08 EPA per play, second-highest), enjoyed the highest play-action rate (36%), had three passes dropped all season (fewest among QBR qualifiers) and threw against light boxes 62% of the time (lowest rate in the league). That last number stands in sharp contrast to Jackson and Allen, who make their own luck through their rushing ability.
In addition, Goff has a near-universally regarded elite playcaller in Ben Johnson. I think it would be foolish to ignore top playcallers completely (I considered it with quarterbacks like Mahomes, Jordan Love and Sam Darnold, too). That doesn't dismiss what Goff did; he's at No. 7, after all. There are many players who couldn't lead an elite offense, even with Goff's playmakers.
Chase had a huge season, compiling 1,708 receiving yards and 17 touchdowns on 127 catches to win the NFL's receiving triple crown. He ranked only ninth in yards per route run among wideouts with at least 200 routes, though he made up for it with incredible volume. He also caught 11.5 passes over expectation per NFL Next Gen Stats (that's partially a Burrow stat, too) while leading the NFL in YAC (787 yards) and YAC over expectation (plus-294).
Though he had 175 fewer yards than Chase, there was a very real argument for Jefferson being the top non-quarterback on this list. He slightly outpaced Chase in yards per route run (2.6 versus 2.5) and was better against man coverage (2.5 versus 2.2). Plus, Chase played with a superior quarterback, though Jefferson perhaps had the superior offensive playcaller.
In the end, I opted for Chase's volume and yards after the catch dominance -- he had 300 more YAC than Jefferson. But it was a remarkable season for Jefferson, who accounted for 35% of Minnesota's receiving yards (highest rate in the league) and elevated Sam Darnold to a career season.
Mayfield elevated his play in 2024. Despite a high 2.5% turnover rate, his EPA per play numbers (assigning the entirety of team performance to him on dropbacks and designed carries) were fifth-best in the league. QBR ranked him 13th overall after adding further context such as garbage time, quality of defenses faced and percentage of yards that came from YAC, which benefited Mayfield more than most quarterbacks.
Five dropped interceptions (second-highest) also skewed his numbers, but he was in a good situation behind the fifth-best offensive line in pass block win rate and a receiver group highlighted by Mike Evans. It wasn't all easy though, given the early loss of Chris Godwin and Mayfield passing against the third-highest rate of light boxes (80%).
Murray started hot, posting the second-highest QBR game by any quarterback this season (98.3) in Week 2 against the Rams. Through Week 10, Murray's 74.5 QBR ranked third, but he trailed off in the second half and finished ninth at 66.7.
Murray was extremely accurate this season, with a plus-2% completion percentage over expectation (seventh-best) and a 13% off-target rate (eighth-best). He had lower-than-average pressure and sack rates despite playing behind a midtier offensive line in pass block win rate. And while his 2.2% turnover rate was middling, it looks a little better considering that he didn't throw a dropped interception all season. Overall, it was an above-average season efficiency-wise, though it looked much stronger a few months ago.
Hendrickson demonstrated clear value with his league-leading 17.5 sacks, 3.5 more than second-place Myles Garrett. But Hendrickson also ranked second in pass rush wins (73), third in pass rush win rate (24%), first in pressures (65) and third in pressure rate (15%). He also had an extraordinary 26.0 sacks created, a metric that awards the player who first beats their blocker on a play that ends in a sack (as opposed to whoever finishes the play). Sacks created is not a perfect metric but highlights how much the Bengals' defense struggled, making Hendrickson's season even more impressive.
Pass-rushing production is heavily influenced by situation, and Hendrickson's wasn't great. Teams that are playing from ahead can force opponents into more desperate passing situations where sacks and pressures abound, which Cincinnati didn't force often. And he didn't have teammates creating clean-up sacks for him, either. But Hendrickson produced anyway.
The numbers indicate another complete performance by the right tackle, the best player on one of the league's best offensive lines. Johnson recorded a 94% pass block win rate and an 80% run block win rate -- both top-five numbers -- and was a big reason why Saquon Barkley ran for 2,005 yards.
Johnson was also mostly on an island, making his win rates even more impressive. He was part of a double-team on only 22% of his pass blocks, the lowest rate of all qualifying tackles.
There was a perception that Jones, who finished with only 5.0 sacks, was having a down season. But when I looked closer at his numbers, I was blown away by his efficiency and volume compared to other defensive tackles. Among qualifying defensive tackles, Jones' 62 pass rush wins were 10 more than the Broncos' Zach Allen and 22 more than the third-best player.
Pressures told a similar story, as Jones had 50 and Allen was second at 36. So even if the sacks didn't occur for Jones this season, he disrupted quarterbacks in a way that far outshined anyone else at his position.
It's hard not to think about what Parsons' final numbers might have been if he and quarterback Dak Prescott stayed healthy for the whole season. With 12.0 sacks in 13 games, Parsons' 15% pressure rate and 25% pass rush win rate were second only to Aidan Hutchinson and Danielle Hunter, respectively. It was the first time in Parsons' career that he wasn't first in pass rush win rate.
He did all of this on a poor team that was regularly behind, making it more impressive. On/off splits can be noisy, but I doubt it's a coincidence the Cowboys' defense was a full 0.1 EPA allowed per dropback better and 9% better at pass rush win rate with Parsons on the field.
Surtain was excellent as a shutdown corner on a great Broncos defense. His 0.6 yards allowed per coverage snap was the best among all outside corners with at least 200 coverage snaps. The on-ball production was there, too, with four interceptions and a minus-24 EPA allowed as the nearest defender. I prefer per-coverage-snap metrics because not being targeted represents skill, and Surtain is near the top there with the third-lowest target rate (11%) among the same set of corners. It was the best of all corners with at least 300 coverage snaps, too.
The only real knock is penalties. Surtain was flagged 12 times this season, the second-most among defensive backs. That drops to seventh-most on a rate basis among defensive backs with at least 400 snaps played.
We've arrived at the running backs, whom I will write about together because they prompt two big questions. Where should Barkey and Derrick Henry be ranked relative to other positions? And who should come first? Let's start with the latter.
Henry produced 1,921 rushing yards, averaging 5.9 yards per carry along with a league-leading 562 rush yards over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats. He led the league with a massive 830 rush yards after contact, one metric he had separation from Barkley (565). Henry also recorded 12 more first downs than Barkley, though he had three fumbles to Barkley's two.
Barkley's obvious big number was surpassing 2,000 rushing yards (2,005) in 16 games on 5.8 yards per carry, and his 549 rush yards over expectation were second only to Henry. Barkley had 278 receiving yards to Henry's 193, though Barkley had two drops (including one which could have clinched a win in Week 2). Barkley enjoyed 4.2 yards before contact -- highest among all running backs with at least 100 carries -- a testament to his offensive line.
I'm not glazing over Barkley's massive numbers. But there happens to be two backs with those numbers, and I'm giving Henry the edge.
The much trickier question is where RBs belong in the wider conversation. They invite attention because of their numbers, but a running back's ability has less to do their numbers than a wide receiver, quarterback or edge rusher does for theirs. Barkley and Henry each benefited from a strong offensive line, mobile quarterbacks willing to run and successful offenses.
I asked the running back value question to several front office members and got a variety of responses. When comparing Barkley's value this season to several non-running backs, one person chose against Barkley every time, pointing to the replaceable nature of running backs. Other running backs might not have had Barkley's numbers, but they would still be productive behind the Eagles' offensive line.
To be fair, D'Andre Swift and Gus Edwards weren't nearly as productive last season with the Eagles and Ravens, respectively. Philadelphia and Baltimore ranked fifth and 12th in EPA per running back carry in 2023, which improved to fourth and first in 2024, respectively. On the flip side, Barkley and Henry produced a lot more this season than they did in 2023. I don't think they both massively improved, but their circumstances did.
In summation, I wrestled with this decision and ended up somewhere in the middle. While I don't think Barkley and Henry are true MVP candidates, I didn't move them too far down my list, either.
The Eagles deserve so much credit for bringing Baun in from the Saints and converting him from edge to off-ball linebacker. He instantly became one of the most valuable off-ball linebackers in the league.
Thanks in part to five forced fumbles, an interception, 3.5 sacks and 11 tackles for loss, Baun led all defenders in plus-EPA (minus-69), a box score metric that awards the EPA to any defender for positive defensive plays. He also had the best EPA allowed as the nearest defender among linebackers (minus-26) by a large margin, per Next Gen Stats, and ranked seventh in run stop win rate. Altogether, it paints a picture of a complete linebacker who was key to an excellent Eagles defense.
I know he played only 11 games, but this ranking indicates how good Nacua was when he was on the field. Here's the headlining number: 3.7 yards per route run. That is the third-highest yards per route run season (min. 200 routes) since 2007, as far back as our route data goes, trailing only Tyreek Hill in 2023 and Steve Smith Sr. in 2008.
Nacua was targeted on an absurd 40% of routes this season, the highest rate among all players since 2007. While I dinged him for missing six games, he deserves to be ranked this high for producing at such a historic level.
Nabers' 109 receptions and 1,204 yards were impressive, but the surrounding context is why he's ranked here. Nabers caught passes from Daniel Jones, Drew Lock, Tommy DeVito and Tim Boyle -- not an elite QB group. And advanced metrics suggest that Nabers was consistently an available target for those quarterbacks. His 91 open score was second only to the Eagles' A.J. Brown among all pass catchers.
It might have ended poorly Monday night, but Darnold had a career season. Considering he led the Vikings to 14 wins, some might bristle at this ranking, but I have a hard time moving him higher. Darnold was more accurate than he has ever been, with a plus-3% completion percentage over expectation (fifth-best) and a 14% off-target rate (13th), per NFL Next Gen Stats. Yet he ranked only 14th in QBR despite having some clear advantages.
He threw to arguably the league's best receiver in Justin Jefferson, played behind the second-best offensive line in pass block win rate, had a 30% play-action rate (fifth-highest) and -- thanks to Minnesota's defense -- played with the lead on 49% of his dropbacks (second only to Jared Goff). Plus, he had an excellent playcaller in Kevin O'Connell, who is a front-runner for Coach of the Year.
Three tight ends stood clearly above the rest. While Kittle had (slightly) fewer receiving yards than Trey McBride or Brock Bowers, I think he was the best of the trio.
Kittle's 1,106 receiving yards came on only 381 routes, putting him at an impressive 2.9 yards per route run. For context, that's a higher yards per route run rate than Ja'Marr Chase or Justin Jefferson. And our player-tracking-based receiver scores loved Kittle. He scored 77-80-64 on open, catch and YAC scores, respectively, giving him the second-highest overall score in ESPN's receiver scores (88) of any player this season, behind only A.J. Brown.
James didn't crack this list last season, but his role and play kicked up in defensive coordinator Jesse Minter's scheme. Minter brought James 2.2 yards closer to the line of scrimmage on each snap compared to last season, dropping his percentage of snaps at deep safety from 54% to 30%, per Next Gen Stats. His percentage of snaps in the box increased from 19% to 31%, as he aligned at slot corner and linebacker more than ever before.
The alignment change helped James make more of an impact in run defense, where his run stop win rate (45%) ranked second among defensive backs with at least 50 run stop plays with a win or a loss. Also, his 0.5 yards allowed per coverage snap were the lowest by any primary slot corner with at least 200 coverage snaps.
It was a great season for rookie wideouts. McConkey managed 1,149 receiving yards, but that might sell his performance short. He recorded 2.6 yards per route run (seventh-best among wide receivers with at least 200 routes run) and 3.0 yards per route run versus man coverage (fourth-best), which is generally a better measure of skill. And his 79 open score in ESPN's receiver scores ranked 12th among all receivers with at least 200 routes. The Chargers got a good one.
Heyward's eight batted passes truly stood out. It was two more than the next-closest player (Eagles defensive tackle Jalen Carter) and only 10 players had even four. Batted passes can be quite valuable because they virtually ensure an incompletion, which a pressure itself can't do.
But Heyward doesn't shine in the other disruption metrics. His 8% pass rush win rate ranked 27th among defensive tackles and his 24 pressures ranked 17th. His run stop win rate was also only slightly above average. But the feedback I received from sources was almost universally positive on the first-team All-Pro, which was meaningful enough to put him this high. The eight sacks he recorded were pretty nice, too.
Humphrey had another fantastic season blocking for Patrick Mahomes, fixing the snap issues he struggled with last season. Humphrey ranked third and first in pass block win rate (96%) and run block win rate (73%) among centers, respectively, anchoring the elite interior of the Chiefs' offensive line. The only reason he's not higher on this list is due to positional value (or lack thereof).
Something I love about this project is getting feedback on individuals who are viewed as both underrated and overrated. There is a lot of disagreement over how good some players are, which makes it really fun! Benford was that player this season.
Nearest defender numbers aren't everything, but his were fantastic. He allowed 0.7 yards per coverage snap, second only to Pat Surtain II among outside corners with at least 200 coverage snaps. Benford's 12% target rate was sixth-best, and he recorded two interceptions. Penalties were not an issue the way they were with Surtain; Benford was flagged five times for a total of 24 accepted penalty yards this season.
There's often an assumption that once offensive linemen are considered good, they're permanently treated as such. But like any other position, great offensive linemen can have down games or seasons. Nelson started his career with three consecutive first-team All-Pro selections, but his pass protection rates slipped in 2022 and 2023 to below average and close to average, respectively.
The old Nelson returned in 2024. His 94% pass block win rate ranked seventh-best at the position, while his 77% run block win rate was third. He was clearly the best guard in football.
Alt put up some serious win rate numbers. He finished with a 94% pass block win rate (fourth-best), albeit with a higher-than-average double-team rate. He also ranked 15th in run block win rate. I specifically asked several front office members about Alt because I was curious if I was overrating his rookie season. The general response? Nope, that's just how solid he was for the Chargers.
Campbell delivered an unbelievable campaign at age 38, registering his third straight season with five or more sacks. His 46% run stop win rate led all players, regardless of alignment, and he registered 12 tackles for loss. But his impact wasn't only in the run game. Campbell also recorded a 12% pass rush win rate -- his highest since 2020 -- which ranked ninth among defensive tackles.
I'm guessing this will feel low since Bonitto finished with 13.5 sacks. There's a case for him being higher because of the sacks, overall box score production and him registering the ninth-highest plus-EPA of any defender.
But as impactful as sacks are, I'm also looking for down-to-down impact. And that's where Bonitto fell short relative to other top edge rushers. His pass rush win rate was 17% at edge, essentially average, and he recorded 35 pass rush wins. The latter is tied for 31st among all defenders. Pressures were slightly kinder to him, but he still ranked 18th in both pressure rate and total pressures.
Boswell was the most productive kicker in the league. He connected on 41 of 44 field goals and was perfect on 35 extra point attempts. But it's important to judge kickers based on the context of when they made kicks. That is shown by NFL Next Gen Stats' field goals made over expectation metric, which controls for factors such as distance and stadium type. Per that stat, Boswell led the league with 7.3 field goals over expectation. That context is also why the Cowboys' Brandon Aubrey (plus-6.6) finished second, even though he was "only" 40-of-47.
In a season with gaudy safety box scores (such as Kerby Joseph's nine interceptions) and big names who made a serious impact (Kyle Hamilton), Jones flew under the radar. Safety is arguably the hardest position to quantify, but Jones posted a 44% run stop win rate -- third-highest among defensive backs with at least 50 run plays with a win or loss. More importantly, the feedback I received from front office staffers was generally positive and made him worthy of inclusion on this list, with one person noting that Jones was particularly effective at deterring explosive plays.