Hurricane Rafael could make landfall in the U.S. later this week, as it continues to barrel over the Gulf of Mexico.
According to the latest National Hurricane Center update, issued at 1 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Rafael is expected to reach western Cuba on Wednesday and move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico before continuing its northwestern track toward Louisiana and Texas. With current maximum sustained winds of 85 mph, the storm is projected to rapidly intensify into a Category 2 hurricane before it makes landfall in Cuba later in the day.
"Environmental conditions are very favorable for continued intensification, and given that Rafael now possesses a tight inner core and eyewall, rapid intensification seems likely," the NHC said.
A hurricane warning is in place for the Cayman Islands and the Cuban provinces of Pinar del Río, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas and the Isle of Youth.
"Hurricane conditions are expected in portions of the Cayman Islands for the next few hours and are also expected in western Cuba and the Isle of Youth today," the NHC reported. "Tropical storm conditions are expected in parts of west-central Cuba and the lower and middle Florida Keys today and tonight."
Will Rafael Hit the U.S.?
Historically speaking, November hurricanes rarely make landfall in the U.S. The Atlantic hurricane season ends in November, when favorable conditions for atmospheric storm formation decrease.
According to a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration database, of the 287 hurricanes that made landfall in the mainland U.S. since 1851, only four took place in November. Three hit Florida and one hit North Carolina.
A spaghetti model produced by Tropical Tidbits, a weather analysis and forecasting site, showed the storm could either continue its northwestern track before pivoting in a northeasterly direction or head west-southwest toward Mexico.
The NHC said on X, formerly Twitter, that even if Rafael continues its current trajectory, despite its projected intensification, the storm should "weaken this weekend as it approaches the northern Gulf."
NHC models showed that Rafael would likely be downgraded to a tropical storm by the time it approached the Gulf states on Saturday through Sunday. A tropical storm has wind speeds between 39 mph and 73 mph.
However, the NHC also warned in its latest update that it was "too soon to determine what, if any, impacts Rafael could bring to portions of the northern Gulf Coast." It advised residents in the area to regularly monitor updates to the weather forecast.
While the storm is not projected to make a direct impact on Florida, the National Weather Service expects tropical-storm-force winds to arrive in the Florida Keys likely late on Wednesday afternoon along with a "slight risk" of severe thunderstorms and the "potential for a few tornadoes."